Surprise in New Zealand

Most of Wednesday unfolded as expected, with, once again, Dollar and Yen gaining appreciating. Gains were not as strong as before, but large enough to be noticeable and bring some pips. Early Thursday, very early Thursday (still only Wednesday here), brought a surprise. Employment data was released in New Zealand, and, just like last time, Kiwi responded strongly. Difference is, that today NZD strengthened, quite dramatically in light of latest market action, while in February it dropped like a rock.

Unemployment in New Zealand fell from 7.1% to 6.0%, significant improvement. Expectation is that these news will pave way for rate increase by RBNZ sooner that previously speculated. Whether it will happen during next policy meeting on June 10, it remains to be seen, but evidently markets anticipate a hike in cash rate. One must remember, however, that new budget will be revealed on May 20 and this could produce additional surprises, depending on how restrictive it gets. Regardless, today New Zealand Dollar registered strong gains.

I had interest in these news, because of my trades involving NZD. Given recent history of how much employment data effected currencies, and unpredictable nature immediate market responses, decided to close trades before announcement. One of them was short in NZD-JPY, which was posted yesterday.

Entry was a move under 67.80, or 67.78 to be precise. Objective was 100 pips. Market moved, in a fairly sharp fashion, but short of my target. price bounced at 100 SMA. By the time candle closed, (4H chart was used for the set up), it was getting close to employment news and trade was closed, for a gain of 52 pips. On the plus side, couple of other trades I took in Yen pairs worked out just fine. But that was not the case with my other Kiwi trade, this one in GBP-NZD.

Here I was hoping for a quick resolution, with entry just under 2.1100. Order was filled , but no progress took place. By the time of news release, trade was closed for 95 pips loss. And not too soon – market plunged additional 200 pips soon after.

After considerable wait, EUR-GBP sell order was finally filled yesterday, and today price reached my objective. With an entry at 0.8597, market has a good chance to see 0.8400, next support, but I wanted to get 100 pips on this swing. Should market continue lower, I will be looking at hourly charts for smaller target opportunities. Decided not to post new orders today, because I’ll be gone all day tomorrow thus unable to update the blog. Just want to point out, that on Friday we have employment data released in USA – non-farm payroll figures. Number different from estimate (177 K) can easily move all USD pairs, as well as Yen crosses. Something to keep in mind.

Mike K.
www.fxmadness.com

Quick update.

Quick update of the couple of trades I posted here . NZD-JPY trade came to a conclusion on Friday. I sold it at 87.00 2 weeks ago, took prtial profits earlier in the week at 84.50 and closed on Friday at just above 83.00. Very good trade. Take a look.

http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/7539/nzdjpyeditedkn9.jpg

Trade from last update was long GBP-CAD. I got filled at 1.9666 with a target of 1.9845.

http://img246.imageshack.us/img246/2262/gbpcadio3.jpg

At this time I'm extending the profit target to 1.9880. So there you have it, more to come later.
Granicus

With the new year.

Quick review of last trade posted here. I sold NZD-JPY and a week later I'm still in it at about break even. Nothing unusual, that was expected. Here is the current chart

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/4718/nzdjpy2pn7.jpg

(As always, click on the link to see the chart).

In the meantime, a new trade is emerging. Pair is GBP-CAD and I want to buy it. Entry price is 1.9666 and a target 1.9845. That's how it looks like right now

http://img165.imageshack.us/img165/6792/gbpcadeditedze0.jpg

I'm expecting big moves over next couple of weeks. Happy New Year!
Granicus

So, it worked at last.

For last couple of weeks I've been tracking NZD-CAD, looking for a move to a downside. The break was not happening, so kept moving my entry just under most recent low. Finaly the move came last Friday. It fast and furious. By that time my sell was at 0.7905, with a target of 0.7805. It was reached in a little over 2 hours. 100 pips.

http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/73/nzdcad3editedqm8.jpg

Most likely I'll be returning to this cross in not too distant future. For now however focus goes elswhere, CAD-CHF to be exact. My plan is to buy it at 1.1400 and trying to reach 1.1600, or 200 pips. Chances are it will take 2-3 weeks, but I like the set up here

http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/1748/cadchfeditedyx1.jpg

As always, click on the links to see the charts.
Now we sit and wait.
Granicus

Taking another shot.

My last entry dealt with a potential trade in NZD-CAD. Plan was to sell it at 0.7580 and ride it down to 0.7480. See previous post for the chart. Well, the trade didn't take place as NZD caught a second wind and continued higher.
Now a new set up has been created which looks promising. I have an order to sell NZD-CAD at 0.7755 with a profit target of 0.7655. I'm still looking to capture 100 pips for this move.

http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/4450/nzdcad2editedjz5.jpg

So here we are, trade is set and ready to go.
Granicus.

As alwyas, click on the link to see the chart.

Nice and easy.

The last entry contained a trade in AUD-CHF. I was going to buy 0.9700 but was filled at 0.9710. Position went through rather big pullback, so I decided to hold it longer. Insted of going for 0.9850 I waited a little longer and settled for 0.9900 or 190 pips. Good trade. Here it is.

http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/6892/audchfeditednn6.jpg

I'm looking at NZD-CAD now. Plan is to sell it at 0.7580 with a target of 0.7480. Not a large target but this set up is not meant for more.

http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/8277/nzdcadeditedua0.jpg

As always, click on the links to see the charts.
Good trading.
Granicus.

Here it is...

I've neglected these pages to some degree. Busy, busy, busy. Besides, the trade I highlighted here took some time develop. Eventually, it came to a satisfactory conclusion and here are the results.

http://img517.imageshack.us/img517/212/gbpaudeditedty6.jpg

Turned out to be a good trade despite long wait, netting 140 pips on first exit and over 400 on next. I'm looking at AUD-CHF now. Plan is to buy it at 0.9700 and look for appreciation to 0.9850 or 150 pips. Here is the chart.

http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/1442/audchfeditedzm7.jpg

Now we wait. I'm sure this trade will not take as long as last one and I'll make it a point to visit this page more often. To see the charts just click the links.
Good trading!

More Pound.

The pound looks strong at the moment and AUD looks weak. Nothing left to do but to give it ashot here. So here we go, going long GBP-AUD at 2.3065 with a goal 2.3270. This is a very conservative target as looks like there is a potential for 2.3500. But first things first .
Here is a link to the chart.


http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/3737/gbpaudcs8.jpg

Granicus.

CAD-CHF

I'm looking at CAD-CHF, among other things. It's another one of the crosses that I trade. We get respectable 8 pips spread here, so it's very much tradable. Here is a 4 H chart. I'm seeking a break here at 1.1980 and a move of about 180 pips, to 1.1800.
Here is a link to the chart .

http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/8471/cadchfhs1.jpg

We shall see what happens.
Granicus.

At last.

Here are the outcomes of my earlier trades in EUR-NZD and GBP-NZD. They made 190 and 300 pips respectively. While I waited for these trades to pan out, there were others before. Since I didn't post them, then there is nothing to comment. The wicked moves yesterday certainly made my day.
Here are the links to charts.

http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/8864/eurnzdcloseeditedle9.jpg
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/9441/gbpnzdcloseeditedye0.jpg

Granicus

Conclusion

Prices slowed down here so I decided to take profits. Exited GBP-SEK at 13.1334 or 413 pips. Not bad.

http://img187.imageshack.us/img187/9971/gbpsekcloseeditedmg9.jpg

Granicus

Let's see...

Both AUD and NZD are locked in a range for now. It's fun to nip at them for a few pips here and there, but sooner or later they are going to break out. Which way, though? I'm giving it a try with GBP-NZD at 2.71 and looking for something like 300 pips or 2.74.

http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/2784/gbpnzdrk1.jpg

Click the link to see the chart.

Granicus.

Hello!

Do you trade Forex? So do I! As a matter of fact, I trade for a living. I work for a small trading company. We trade a few proprietary accounts, do some research for commercial companies hedging their international exposure. We also offer some services to general public through our website.
I don't have much to do with the website, however, as my boss decides what goes on it. Whatever is published there is not mine. My job is analysis and trading of the less popular currencies, something we refer to as "secondary crosses". Not true exotics, mind you, like Turkish lira, but rather crosses like CAD/CHF, GBP/NZD or USD/NOK. These combinations don't have much of institutional following and even less retail trading, so there isn't all that much information available about them. So I thought I'd shed some light on the subject.
I can't publish what we do in our corporate accounts, my boss would chop me to pieces. Don't laugh, the guy has swords and other ancient fighting implements all over the place. I will however disclose from time to time my own personal trades.
Short term trades, using 5M or 15M charts are not really practical for blog posting, unless I'd do nothing but post here. Well, I have neither time nor inclination for that, but I can share some trades using 1H, 4H or Daily charts.
You can follow these trades, see me make money or take the beating. Both are normal for me, just a "day in the office". It's not my intention to encourage anybody to trade but rather to chronicle my own twisted journey through the mine field of Forex trading.

You are cordially invited to watch!

Granicus.